“The business plans of the next 10,000 startups are easy to forecast: Take X and add AI. This is a big deal, and now it’s here.” — Kevin Kelly
The computing industry is growing every second and naturally it deserves attention as to how the future looks! Here are your 10 points guide to the future of computing
Computing Industry Cycle Dependencies
The future of computing depends on two cycles – financial and product cycles.
Financial markets get a lot of attention and undergoes a lot of scrutiny, but product cycle stays low. Product cycle drives the computing industry forward through enforcing interaction between platforms and applications.
Major Technology Cycle – How Often that Happens?
Major new tech cycles occur every 10-15 years that reshape computing dependencies. First we had the creation of word processors, spreadsheets and other desktop applications.
Then came the internet – search engines, e-commerce, e-mail and social networking, SaaS business applications.
Currently we are in the mobile era – mobile social networking, on demand services, hyperlocal services and many more to come.
Product Era Phases
There are two broadly classified phases – gestation phase, when a new platform is first introduced, it is expensive, incomplete and difficult to use.
The second is the growth phase – when exponential growth happens, a wider market is reached, is inexpensive and does not carry the problems that it had in the gestation phase.
Hardware – Small and Cheap
We are entering an area where there will be more computers than people.
Standalone CPUs is being replaced by systems-on-a-chip which will bundle ARM CPUs along with chips for graphics processing, communications, power management, etc.
This will lead to drastic drop in computing devices.
GPUs and Quantum Computing
Significant improvement in the performance of graphics processors will enable better machine learning algorithms and virtual/augmented reality services.
Quantum computing which is still in laboratories once introduced will lead to extremely high performance improvements helping in fields of biology and artificial intelligence.
Software – AI enters golden phase
The era of Artificial Intelligence where it was mostly hype and disappointment seems to be over.
AI has put the focus on deep learning and machine learning. Many of the papers and other resources related to AI has been open sourced.
Software tools like Theano and TensorFlow, combined with cloud data centers for training, and cheaper GPUs for deployment, allow small teams of engineers to build state-of-the-art AI systems.
The search function in Google Photos is one of the primary applications of deep learning is very smart.
The future will be about voice assistants, search engines, chat bots, 3D scanners, language translators, drones and many more.
Software + Hardware
Autonomous cars will soon become reality with Google, Apple, Uber, Tesla investing heavily in research and development of the same.
Drones will certainly be heavily used for commercial purpose once advanced computer vision is implemented that will make them safer, easier to pilot and navigate.
Internet of Things (IoT) will enhance security and convenience along with energy savings.
Nest and Dropcam are popular examples of energy savings and security while Amazon’s Echo is for convenience.
Other combinations would include wearables, virtual reality, augmented reality
My Last Word
Computing industry has always been about innovation. While computing has made the world a smaller place, improved convenience, reduced costs, it has also led to increase in serious threats to personal and public assets.
Securing software and hardware will remain the biggest challenge and cause of concern among the authorities and internet literate audience.
The original article was first published in Medium. Read the complete article here.